Koronavir\u00fcs (Covid-19) elbette \u00f6ncelikle bir sa\u011fl\u0131k tehdidi sorunu; ancak iktisadi ve sosyal uzant\u0131lar\u0131 sorunun \u00e7ok daha kapsaml\u0131 ve sistemik oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini de gizlemiyor. Covid-19 tehdidini \u00e7ok daha karma\u015f\u0131k bi\u00e7ime d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcren ana nedenlerden birisi de bilgi kirlili\u011fi sorunu. Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn yay\u0131l\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131na, iktisadi maliyetlerine, k\u00fcresel d\u00fczene ili\u015fkin rasgele varsay\u0131mlara dayal\u0131 projeksiyonlar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00f6rmemizi b\u00fcsb\u00fct\u00fcn engelliyor; belirsizlikleri derinle\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu yaz\u0131mda Covid-19\u2019un k\u00fcresel ekonomik d\u00fczene ili\u015fkin maliyetlerini kalk\u0131nmakta olan \u00fclkeler ve daha genelde kalk\u0131nma stratejisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Kalk\u0131nma ve Ticaret Konferans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (UNCTAD) ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta i\u00e7inde payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporlara dayanarak tart\u0131\u015fmak arzusunday\u0131m. UNCTAD, gezegenimizin do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131na sayg\u0131ya dayal\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir kalk\u0131nma ve insan onuruna yak\u0131\u015f\u0131r odakl\u0131 \u00fcretim anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 koruyan ender uluslararas\u0131 kurumlardan birisi. Raporda yer alan veri ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri payla\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6nemli oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesindeyim.<\/p>\n
Covid-19 krizi, k\u00fcresel ekonomideki mevcut dengesizliklerin \u00fczerine olu\u015ftu<\/p>\n
UNCTAD ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131, koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn k\u00fcresel ekonomide yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 olas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmede y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019in alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcl\u00fcrse 1 trilyon; e\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 1.7\u2019nin de alt\u0131na inerse 2 trilyon dolara ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Krizin k\u00fcresel ekonomiye etkisinin, bilindi\u011fi \u00fczere, \u00fc\u00e7 ana kaynaktan olu\u015fmas\u0131 beklenecek: Talep y\u00f6n\u00fcnden (gelirlerin azalmas\u0131, t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n ertelenmesi, vb.); arz y\u00f6n\u00fcnden (k\u00fcresel \u00fcretim zincirlerinin tahribat\u0131, ara ve yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131nda tedarik s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinin aksamas\u0131, …) ve finansal sistemin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi.<\/p>\n
Covid-19 krizi, UNCTAD\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131llarda yay\u0131mlam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu Ticaret ve Kalk\u0131nma Raporlar\u0131nda da \u0131srarla vurguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, k\u00fcresel ekonomide yayg\u0131n bir durgunlu\u011fun h\u00fck\u00fcm s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ve reel \u00fcretkenlik kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel olarak \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeylerde seyretmekte oldu\u011fu, k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde gelir ve servet da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki e\u015fitsizliklerin derinle\u015fti\u011fi ve finans sisteminin k\u00f6p\u00fckle\u015ferek, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 risk alg\u0131s\u0131 ile birlikte k\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir durgunluk ve dengesizlik ortam\u0131nda olu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel ekonominin i\u00e7ine s\u00fcr\u00fcklendi\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck durgunluk 2008\/09 krizinden bu yana a\u015f\u0131labilmi\u015f de\u011fil. \u00dccretli eme\u011fin bir yandan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fccret gelirleri, di\u011fer yandan da enformalle\u015ftirilmi\u015f, par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131ndaki g\u00fcvencesiz istihdam bi\u00e7imleriyle yoksulla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131; k\u00fcresel ticaretin en az \u00fc\u00e7te ikisinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck 2 bin ulus-\u00f6tesi \u015firket taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6netildi\u011fi ve servet birikimindeki e\u015fitsizli\u011fin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sosyal d\u0131\u015flanma ve toplumsal \u015fiddet ortam\u0131 on y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n bir s\u00fcredir k\u00fcresel ekonominin yeni normali olarak an\u0131lagelmekteydi. S\u00f6z konusu yeni normal s\u00fcresince k\u00fcresel finansal varl\u0131klar\u0131n de\u011ferleri \u015fimdiye de\u011fin sadece geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n pervas\u0131zca uygulad\u0131klar\u0131 parasal geni\u015fleme politikalar\u0131 sayesinde korunabilmi\u015f ve d\u00fcnya s\u0131f\u0131r faizli, ucuz likiditeye bo\u011fulmu\u015f durumdayd\u0131. Finansal fonlar\u0131n, sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 yerine giderek daha riskli ve spek\u00fclatif nitelikli finansal rant oyunlar\u0131nda heba edilmesi, durgunluk – e\u015fitsizlik k\u0131skac\u0131n\u0131n da ana unsurunu olu\u015fturmaktayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak, yer\u00e7ekimi yasalar\u0131n\u0131 hi\u00e7e sayan bu balonla\u015fman\u0131n bir di\u011fer yans\u0131mas\u0131 da k\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 stokundaki ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramayd\u0131. 2008 krizinden \u00f6nce 152 trilyon dolar olan k\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 stoku on y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde 240 trilyon dolara \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f, d\u00fcnya milli gelirler toplam\u0131n\u0131n da neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7 misline ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n i\u00e7inde en b\u00fcy\u00fck pay\u0131n ise finans-d\u0131\u015f\u0131, reel kesim \u00f6zel \u015firketlere ait oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. UNCTAD verileri, reel sekt\u00f6r \u015firketler kesiminin d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, bu kesimce ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n neredeyse iki misli \u00fcst\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu dile getirmektedir. B\u00fcy\u00fck durgunluk boyunca, reel \u00fcretim \u015firketlerinin de art\u0131k birer finansal rantiye \u00fcss\u00fcne d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011fu g\u00f6zlenmektedir.<\/p>\n
Yeni k\u00fcresel d\u00fczen \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131<\/p>\n
UNCTAD raporu, bu veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Covid-19 krizi ile m\u00fccadelenin iki boyutta de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fini \u00f6nermektedir. \u0130lki, bundan evvelki m\u00fcdahale bi\u00e7imlerinde oldu\u011fu \u00fczere, merkez bankalar\u0131nca y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclecek parasal geni\u015fleme yoluyla ucuz krediye dayal\u0131 talep deste\u011fi sunmak ve beklemek. Ancak, krize intibak s\u00fcrecinin V ya da U bi\u00e7iminde zamana yay\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi sorunlar\u0131 ertelemekten \u00f6teye gitmeyecektir.<\/p>\n
\u0130kinci bir m\u00fccadele y\u00f6ntemi ise al\u0131nacak tedbirleri en ba\u015fta krizi yaratan ekonomik ve sosyal ko\u015fullar\u0131n d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesiyle birlikte ele almakla ilintilidir. Odakland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve aktif makroekonomik politikalar ile birlikte sosyal dayan\u0131\u015fmay\u0131, kamusal \u00fcretimi ve do\u011fam\u0131z\u0131n kaynaklar\u0131na (ve iklim boyutuna) duyarl\u0131, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir kalk\u0131nma stratejilerini birle\u015ftirecek yeni bir toplumsal d\u00fczenin kurumlar\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturmay\u0131 tasarlamakla i\u015fe giri\u015febiliriz. K\u00e2r amac\u0131na de\u011fil, toplumsal faydan\u0131n \u00fcretimine ve e\u015fitlik i\u00e7inde payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na odaklanan bir d\u00fcnyay\u0131 yaratabiliriz.<\/p>\n
UNCTAD\u2019\u0131n \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131na ek olarak, daha somut ve acil bir \u00f6neri de bu sat\u0131rlarda yer als\u0131n: Mevcut Covid-19 krizini a\u015fmak \u00fczere s\u0131f\u0131r faizli, geni\u015fleyici para politikalar\u0131 yerine, \u00fccretli eme\u011fe do\u011frudan gelir transferi ile birle\u015ftirilecek bir geni\u015fleyici maliye politikas\u0131 uygulamay\u0131; olu\u015facak kamu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 kapatmak i\u00e7in de yerel ve k\u00fcresel boyutta bir servet vergisini devreye sokmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnsek? S\u00f6z konusu tasar\u0131m\u0131n \u201cfinansal sistemin sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u201d ve hatta \u201cpiyasa sisteminin mant\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u201d ayk\u0131r\u0131 oldu\u011fu ku\u015fku g\u00f6t\u00fcrmeyecektir. Ben de tam bunu kastetmekteyim.<\/p>\n
18.03.2020<\/p>\n
\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Koronavir\u00fcs (Covid-19) elbette \u00f6ncelikle bir sa\u011fl\u0131k tehdidi sorunu; ancak iktisadi ve sosyal uzant\u0131lar\u0131 sorunun \u00e7ok daha kapsaml\u0131 ve sistemik oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini de gizlemiyor. Covid-19 tehdidini \u00e7ok daha karma\u015f\u0131k bi\u00e7ime d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcren ana nedenlerden birisi de bilgi kirlili\u011fi sorunu. Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn yay\u0131l\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131na, iktisadi maliyetlerine, k\u00fcresel d\u00fczene ili\u015fkin rasgele varsay\u0131mlara dayal\u0131 projeksiyonlar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00f6rmemizi b\u00fcsb\u00fct\u00fcn engelliyor; belirsizlikleri derinle\u015ftiriyor. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2558,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"0","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":""},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"override_view_counter":"0","view_counter_number":"0","override_share_counter":"0","share_counter_number":"0","override_like_counter":"0","like_counter_number":"0","override_dislike_counter":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[210,217],"class_list":["post-2556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel","tag-koronavirus","tag-unctad"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/belediyeis.org.tr\/merkez\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/belediyeis.org.tr\/merkez\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/belediyeis.org.tr\/merkez\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belediyeis.org.tr\/merkez\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belediyeis.org.tr\/merkez\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2556"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/belediyeis.org.tr\/merkez\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2556\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2559,"href":"https:\/\/belediyeis.org.tr\/merkez\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2556\/revisions\/2559"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belediyeis.org.tr\/merkez\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2558"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/belediyeis.org.tr\/merkez\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belediyeis.org.tr\/merkez\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belediyeis.org.tr\/merkez\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}